The BJP appears set for a landslide victory in the general elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi likely to become the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure three consecutive terms, according to exit polls released on Saturday as the Lok Sabha polls concluded after six weeks of voting.
All ten prominent national exit polls forecast an emphatic win for the BJP, with some even suggesting a two-thirds majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 543-member House. The BJP is projected to surpass its rivals across the heartland and achieve its best-ever performance in southern India, indicating a robust Modi wave and the party’s expanding influence in previously unconquered regions.
In contrast, the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) seems to be losing ground across central and northern India, with the Congress predicted to fare poorly in the 190-odd seats where it is in direct contest with the BJP. Despite its significant victory in Karnataka last year, the Congress is projected to perform poorly in the state and fail to capitalize on its success in neighboring Telangana.
The exit polls suggest that the BJP’s tally will exceed its 2019 mark and could potentially reach 350 seats, while the Congress is likely to be restricted to below 75 seats. This prediction underscores Modi’s pan-India appeal, boosting the BJP’s performance across various states and regions, enabling the party to sweep states like Telangana and Odisha, where it previously had little presence. Many polls indicate that a third term for Modi could come with an even larger mandate than his first or second terms.
Conversely, the Opposition’s strategy of forcing one-on-one contests may have backfired. Except for minor gains in northern India, the Opposition is predicted to lose seats across the board.
Although exit polls are not always accurate, especially in states with diverse populations, they are valuable for identifying trends. The official results will be announced on June 4.
If these trends hold, the national elections will continue the post-2014 trend of competitive state elections and largely one-sided national elections, with the BJP opening a substantial lead over the Opposition due to the “Modi premium” — the strong ground connect and popularity enjoyed by Modi.
Such a result would mean the BJP and the NDA might achieve Modi’s pre-poll targets of 370 and 400 seats, respectively.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government. They have seen our track record and the manner in which our work has brought about a qualitative change in the lives of the poor, marginalized, and downtrodden,” Modi posted on social media shortly after voting ended for the 57 Lok Sabha seats across seven states and Union Territories.
“The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal, and corrupt. This alliance, aimed to protect a handful of dynasties, failed to present a futuristic vision for the nation. Through the campaign, they only enhanced their expertise on one thing — Modi bashing. Such regressive politics has been rejected by the people,” he added.
Before the exit polls were broadcast, members of the INDIA bloc met in Delhi. “The INDIA bloc will get more than 295 seats. We have arrived at this figure after speaking with all our leaders,” Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters after the meeting.
“This is a survey of people. People have given this information to our leaders. The government surveys are there and their media friends also inflate figures and put it out. Therefore, we want to tell you about the reality.”
The exit polls also suggest that several powerful regional parties — such as the Trinamool Congress in Bengal, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, and the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha — might suffer significant defeats and lose a large portion of their vote share to the BJP.
In the 130-odd seats of southern India, where the INDIA bloc hoped to make significant gains, almost every exit poll showed the BJP making strides in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, two states where the party has struggled to establish a foothold, and winning a decisive victory in Karnataka. Along with its alliance partner Telugu Desam Party, the BJP is projected to sweep Andhra Pradesh, relegating the ruling YSR Congress Party to a distant second. In Telangana, exit polls predict a collapse of the BRS, with the BJP emerging as the single-largest party and winning a majority of the 17 seats in the state.
Overall, the NDA and INDIA blocs are forecast to be neck and neck in southern India. If these trends hold, it would be bad news for the Opposition, which hoped to dominate these regions. The official results on June 4 will confirm the accuracy of these predictions.